80% of Black Friday Opportunity Gets Missed (Are Your Deals Already Gone?)
A candid conversation about the biggest retail mistake most businesses make during South Africa's biggest shopping season
Let me be honest with you – I've spent the last five years watching online retailers make the same mistake over and over again. Every November, around mid-month, they start asking me the same desperate question: "Why aren't we hitting our targets?" By then, it's almost too late. The problem isn't what happens on Black Friday itself. It's what happens before it, and after it, and the months leading up to it.
Here's the Reality Nobody Wants to Admit
When most business owners think about Black Friday, they picture one thing: November 28th. A single Friday. Maybe they throw in the weekend if they're feeling ambitious, and if they're really forward-thinking, they'll extend deals to Cyber Monday on December 1st. But here's what the numbers actually tell us – and I've got data to back this up – planning for just that single day means you're missing out on 80% of the opportunity that's sitting right in front of you.
I discovered this the hard way after analyzing sales patterns from South African retailers over the past few years. When I started mapping when customers actually start shopping and when they stop, something became crystal clear. The action isn't concentrated on one day. It's spread across an entire season.
The Real Shopping Season Nobody Talks About
Think about your own shopping habits. Do you wake up on November 28th with zero ideas about what you want to buy? Most people don't. What actually happens is this: consumers start noticing Black Friday promotions in early November. Their interest builds slowly. They start bookmarking items they're eyeing. They compare prices. They make lists. Then, when their favorite retailers drop their deals – sometimes weeks before the actual date – they jump in.
What I'm trying to say is that Black November isn't a catchy marketing phrase. It's reality. Many of the smartest retailers I work with have already stopped thinking in terms of "Black Friday day." They're thinking about the entire month. Some are even extending promotions backward into late October, and forward through early December.
The Psychology of the Extended Play
I once worked with a boutique fashion retailer who was terrified of extending Black Friday promotions too far. They worried about "devaluing the brand" or "confusing customers with too many sale periods." Sound familiar? I get that concern. But here's what happened when they finally agreed to try something different.
Instead of launching everything on November 28th, they started rolling out different products, different discounts, and different marketing messages across the full month of November. Early November brought 20% discounts on specific categories. Mid-November bumped it to 25%. The final week ramped up to their deepest discounts. And you know what? Their sales didn't just improve – they tripled their early projections.
Why did this work? Because it matched how customers actually shop. Some people shop early. Some wait until the last minute. Some are looking for specific items. Others are browsing and hoping to find something they didn't know they needed. By spreading your offers across the month, you're speaking their language. You're meeting them where they actually are, not where you want them to be.
What Most Retailers Get Wrong
The biggest mistake I see over and over again is this: retailers treat Black Friday like a sprint. They stockpile inventory, they blast out aggressive advertising, they offer their deepest discounts – and then on December 2nd, they flip a switch and it's like the entire event never happened. Sales plummet. The momentum just vanishes.
Compare that to retailers who think about the season. They manage inventory more intelligently. They spread their marketing spend across weeks instead of blowing it all at once. They have time to test what's working and adjust. They get to know what their customers actually want because they have feedback throughout the month, not just a chaotic 24-hour period.
Let Me Paint a Picture of What This Actually Looks Like
Imagine it's November 1st. You're launching what I call "early bird deals" – not your deepest discounts, but genuine value that makes people take notice. Maybe it's 20% off select categories. The goal here isn't to empty your warehouses. It's to get people's attention and start building momentum.
Your messaging is calm, inviting. You're not screaming "GET IT NOW OR MISS OUT FOREVER!" You're saying something like "Early access to November savings for our valued customers." You're building anticipation, not panic.
Mid-November rolls around. You've had two weeks of data. You know which products people are actually interested in. So now you can get smarter. You deepen discounts on items that are performing. You introduce bundles based on what customers are buying together. You might even introduce tiered deals where customers who spend more get bigger discounts. This isn't guesswork anymore. This is informed strategy.
Then comes the final week, November 21st through 28th. This is when you bring out your heavy artillery. Your deepest discounts. Your most aggressive marketing. But here's the thing – you're not starting from zero. You've already got customers engaged. You've already got social proof. You've got reviews from early buyers. You've got momentum. This final push isn't your entire strategy. It's the crescendo of a symphony that's been building for weeks.
And then – and this is crucial – you don't stop on November 29th. Cyber Monday is December 1st. You've got a few days to keep the wave going. And then you have another option: extended Black November deals running right through to December 6th for customers who missed out or who are doing their last-minute shopping.
The Data Doesn't Lie
I won't bore you with endless statistics, but the evidence is everywhere. When South African retailers embrace the extended Black November approach, transaction volumes increase significantly across the entire period. Mobile shopping – which represents two-thirds of all transactions – spreads more evenly across weeks instead of creating a bottleneck on one day. Websites don't crash. Delivery services don't get overwhelmed. Customer service teams actually have time to respond to inquiries.
More importantly, customer satisfaction goes up. People aren't stressed. They're not frantically competing with others to grab the last item. They've had time to make thoughtful decisions. And here's something that surprised me at first: when you give people breathing room, they actually spend more. Because they're not just grabbing deals in a panic. They're exploring. They're finding things they actually want.
What You Should Actually Be Doing Right Now
If you're reading this in October, you're actually in the perfect position. You've got time to prepare for what I'm telling you. Start thinking about November as a campaign, not an event. What products do you want to showcase? When will you introduce them? How will your discounts evolve across the month?
- Plan your inventory around the entire month. Don't assume everything sells on day one. Allocate your stock to last from November 1st through December 6th.
- Create a messaging calendar. What story are you telling in early November? Mid-month? Final week? Make it feel like a journey, not a panic.
- Segment your customer base. Early shoppers get early access. Last-minute shoppers get flash deals. Loyal customers get VIP pricing. Different people shop differently.
- Test and adjust. With a month-long campaign, you can see what's working and double down on it. You can pivot away from what isn't resonating.
- Think about the customer experience beyond just discounts. What makes shopping with you special? Is it faster delivery? Better returns? Expert advice? Make that part of your Black Friday story too.
The Uncomfortable Truth About Missing Out
So here's what keeps me up at night about this: retailers who don't embrace this extended approach aren't just leaving money on the table. They're actively handing it to their competitors. If you're planning for one day and your competitor is planning for a month, guess who's going to capture more of that $30+ billion that consumers spend globally during this season?
The customer who planned to shop on November 20th but found no good deals? They went to your competitor. The customer who wanted to shop on December 2nd but thought Black Friday was over? Same thing. These aren't hypotheticals. These are customers you could have captured.
80% of Black Friday opportunity gets missed not because customers aren't interested. They're absolutely interested. It gets missed because most businesses are only ready to capture the other 20%. This November, be different. Be ready for the entire month. Your sales numbers – and your customers – will thank you for it.